A major new poll has predicted who is most likely to be the next MP for Barrow and Furness.

Analysis from YouGov has suggested that if the General Election was held when the poll was released on June 3, Michelle Scrogham, the candidate for the Labour Party, would be most likely to win the seat.

The YouGov multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) poll uses data from almost 60,000 respondents to predict results in individual seats.

According to the data from the poll, Mrs Scrogham would likely gain 49 per cent of the vote in the constituency. The poll predicts Conservative candidate Simon Fell would come second with 31 per cent of the vote.

Data suggests Reform UK candidate Barry Morgan would come third with 11 per cent of the vote. The survey predicts the Green Party candidate Lorraine Wrennall would gain five per cent of the vote and the Liberal Democrat candidate Adrian Waite would win three per cent of the vote share.

Following the 2023 review of Westminster Constituencies, the Copeland constituency was abolished and the wards of Millom as well as Black Combe & Scafell will join the Barrow and Furness constituency area.

The MP for Barrow and Furness will represent towns and villages including Barrow, Dalton, Ulverston, Millom, Broughton, Askam and Kirkby in Parliament.

In December 2019, Conservative candidate Simon Fell won 51.9 per cent of the vote share and was elected as MP for the area. Labour candidate Chris Altree came second with 18,087 votes which represented 39.3 per cent of the vote.

Lorraine Birchall, the Liberal Democrat candidate, came third with 4.4 per cent of the vote, Ged McGrath of the Brexit Party came fourth with 2.9 per cent of the vote and Chris Loynes from the Green Party received 1.5 per cent of the vote. The turnout was 65.6 per cent.

Across the UK, the YouGov research estimated Labour is on course for a landslide win with 420 MPs, up from 202 at the last election five years ago, with the Conservatives down from 365 to 140.

The candidates for Barrow and Furness so far declared ahead of the general election on July 4 are Simon Fell for the Conservatives, Barry Morgan for Reform, Michelle Scrogham for Labour, Adrian Waite for the Liberal Democrats and Lorraine Wrennall for the Green Party.

The election will be held on July 4.